The vinyl frontier: the billion-dollar nostalgic niche
According to Deloitte, 2017 will see total vinyl sales generate $1 billion (£800m) globally for the first time this century. New and used discs will generate over 90 percent of total revenues, with the remainder made up by turntables and accessories.
New vinyl revenues and units are likely to enjoy a seventh consecutive year of double-digit growth in 2017, with about 40 million new discs sold, generating $800-$900 million (£650-£730m) and an average revenue per unit at a little over $20 (£16). Vinyl’s continued resurgence will likely account for up to 18 percent of all physical music revenues in 2017 and about six percent of forecast global music revenues of $15 billion (£12bn).
Paul Lee, head of technology, media and telecoms research at Deloitte comments: “Vinyl’s resurgence more than 40 years after peak sales in the late-1970s is something of a phenomenon. The ubiquity of music streaming services means that music has never been more accessible, portable and readily available for consumer. Yet, despite that, consumers are choosing to buy something tangible and nostalgic and a price point that provides record companies with significant revenues.
“Vinyl has a future in music, and an attractive one from a financial as well as an aesthetic perspective, but it is not, and is unlikely ever to be, its major growth or profit engine. Music’s future, both from a revenue and consumption perspective, is all about digital, and this is where the brunt of the industry’s focus should be.”
TV advertising revenues: flat is the new up
Deloitte predicts that television advertising revenue in 2017 will remain resilient to digital disruption, and, in the US, will likely be flat from the previous year, despite this being a post-election year and without major television events such as the Olympic Games. In the US, the industry will generate TV advertising revenues in the region of $72 billion in 2017.
Deloitte also expects the UK TV advertising market to be flat relative to 2016, generating £5.3 billion in 2017, an 8% increase on 2014. Spending on TV advertising in the US and UK should remain steady due to several factors.
According to Deloitte, daily television viewing remains robust, ad-skipping is relatively limited and older viewers are watching slightly more TV. In addition, traditional TV appears to be retaining its mass-market appeal, unlike streamed TV, which is still viewed by a minority of the population.
Ed Shedd, head of technology, media and telecommunications at Deloitte comments: “While a prediction for flat TV advertising revenues in 2017 might not sound too exciting, it is nevertheless a positive outlook for the industry. The death of television has been declared all too often in recent years, yet TV continues to thrive and avoid following in the footsteps of other traditional media that have been challenged by digital technology.
“Commercial television -- despite modest year-on-year declines in viewing numbers -- is likely to be one of the few media capable of delivering, on a daily basis, audiences in the millions per programme. As long as this maintains, advertisers are likely to remain faithful to TV.
“We expect traditional TV to continue co-existing with digital advertising and content. Advertisers should consider which products are best advertised on TV and which on digital. In this omnichannel world they need to make all their different ad channels work together, rather than trying to pick a single ‘winner-takes-all’ medium.”
For additional information or to view “Technology, Media and Telecommunications Trends for 2017” click on the link https://goo.gl/YQfo3V.
The 2017 series of TMT Predictions is the 16th edition of the report and has drawn on internal and external inputs from thousands of conversations with member firm clients and contributions from Deloitte member firms’ partners and managers specialising in TMT, and discussions with industry analysts as well as interviews with leading executives from around the world and proprietary quantitative research.